Projects
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On-going Projects
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund
1-2401「Carbon dioxide removal options under the 1.5°C climate stabilization target for the world and their implications」（2024-2026）
This research outlines emission pathways for long-term climate stabilization, explores carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options to achieve these pathways, and examines their social, economic, and environmental implications globally, including for Japan. To this end, we present multiple quantitative scenarios from the present day to the year 2100. These scenarios include the implementation levels of various CDR technologies and key social, economic, and environmental indicators such as energy and land use.
1-2202「Quantification of the roadmap towards the realization of a climate-neutral society in Asia」(FY2022-2024)
In the project we aim to develop a power supply model, transportation model, and food demand model and refine social transformation including changes in consumption behavior and industrial structure for Asia in a framework of the current Asia-Pacific integrated model. In addition, using these individual models, we will quantify the roadmap for the realization of a climate-neutral society from the perspective of macro-economy and energy supply and demand.
The country's top GHG emissions such as China and India, which are the key to achieving the 2 / 1.5 ° C target, as well as small countries are assessed to explore the diversity of Asian countries . On the other hand, when Japan provides international support, in addition to exports of energy-saving products and infrastructure from Japan, it is also expected that the GHG emission reductions realized in each country will be used as credits. We will clarify the benefits of improvement using an applied general equilibrium model for Japan. The results of GHG emission reduction effects in each country will be reflected in the global model, and the effects and impacts that efforts in Asia and Japan toward achieving the 2 / 1.5 ° C target will have on the world will be clarified. In addition, model improvement for each country, collection of basic information for future scenario creation, evaluation of validity of calculation results using model and possibility of introducing policy, NDC from 2030 to 2050 Joint assessment with national experts will be conducted to assess the consistency of emission reduction targets with the long-term low-carbon development strategy towards the project.
KAKENHI (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research)
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
「Examining the feasibility of simultaneously achieving decarbonization and poverty, hunger, and energy poverty eradication using a global model」（2023-2026）
This research aims to demonstrate pathways to achieve zero emission targets and eradicate poverty, hunger, and energy poverty. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive roadmap for reaching zero emission goals and eliminating poverty, hunger, and energy poverty. To present a detailed picture, we will develop a model that represents household consumption by income bracket and by goods in both monetary and physical terms across 180 countries worldwide.
Others
THE ASAHI GLASS FOUNDATION, Special Research Grants for "Blue Planet" Global Environment「Three Zeros: Zero Hunger, Zero Carbon Emissions, and Zero Biodiversity Losses」（2023-2026）
This research focuses on land as the interface between climate change and biodiversity loss, aiming to elucidate the interactions between biodiversity conservation measures and climate change mitigation measures, and to propose solutions that address both issues simultaneously. The objective of this study is to explore these interactions and propose integrated solutions.
To this end, the study will focus on the current century, examining biodiversity loss while addressing the food needs of the world's projected 10 billion people (SDG 2), biodiversity conservation (SDG 15), and climate change mitigation (SDG 13).
International Projects
AgMIP (THe Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project)
IAMC (Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium)
Completed Projects
1-2101 「A study on global decarbonization pathways considering technological, economic and social feasibility」 (FY2021-FY2023)
The research assesses technological, economic and social feasibility with quantitative scenario analysis by developing the innovative integrated assessment models, which are based on Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), with new models on energy and food systems. Social feasibility is assessed through the stakeholder meetings with the quantitative information from IAMs. This study explores global decarbonization pathways considering the effects of innovative technologies, lifestyle changes and climate polices.
2-2104 「Transition to decarbonization: Multi-model assessment on innovation and lifestyle transformation」 (FY2021-FY2023)
This research clarifies the role of innovation and lifestyle transformation on Japan's transition to decarbonization by multi-model mitigation scenario assessment in conjunction with the transition study.
2-2002 「Climate mitigation measures and sustainable development to achieve net zero emissions for the world 」 (FY2020-FY2022)
This research answers the research question, "What kind of society is it to create and accept to achieve net zero emissions in a way that does not impair the sustainability of human society and ecosystems?" , The overall goal is to quantify a global sustainability scenario that takes into account the interdependence of climate policy, climate impacts and sustainability. Within this project, we are going to elaborate the integrated framework of current AIM by further incorporating biodiversity and land vegetation models.
「Assessment of the impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions on poverty 」 (FY2019-FY2022)
Significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are required in the future under Paris Agreement. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between poverty and low carbon society toward the 2 ° C goal. In order to realize that, we will develop a model that represents household behavior by income class, specifically household income, household consumption by goods and services, from micro data, which is survey data for individual households, Elucidate the impact of low carbon policies by income class and propose policies for low income groups.
The Sumitomo Foundation Fiscal 2019 Grant for Environmental Research Project
「Development of a method to assess global environmental impacts associated with Asian societal transformation 」 (FY2019-FY2021)
This study clarifies "the impact of social change on energy and environmental problems in the future from 2020 to 2050 in Asia". Here, the energy and environmental indicators associated with the SDGs will be quantified. Namely, thealth, energy security, waste, climate, and forest ecosystem derived from hunger, water shortage, and air pollution are considered. For this quantification work, a simulation model called an integrated assessment model (IAMs) that represent social economic and environmental systems in an single platform is used
2-1908 「A study on deep-cutting of greenhouse gas emission reduction in Asia and benefit to Japan by its support」 (FY2019-FY2021)
This research focuses on the technologies and systems necessary for achieving emission reductions, focusing on countries in which NDC targeting 2030, such as Thailand and Indonesia, is divided into its own efforts and targets with international support, among Asian countries. The emissions reduction potential and economic ripple effects will be using country-specific snapshot tools, energy system and applied general equilibrium models. In addition, we try to identify the required reduction toward 2050 in each country corresponding to the emission pathways that achieves the 2 / 1.5 ° C goals given by a global integrated assessment model. In these countries, efforts to reduce non-energy related GHG emissions are also emphasized in their policies, and new modules will be developed, added, and analyzed so that measures derived from waste and land use change etc. can also be evaluated.
S-12 「Evaluation of SLCP Environmental Impact and Promotion of Climate Change Countermeasures through Seeking the Optimal Pathway」 (FY2014-FY2018)
Air pollution is a serious global problem, especially in Asia. Development of countermeasures is a pressing issue for society. Air pollutants include black carbon, tropospheric ozone, methane, hydrof luorocarbons (HFCs) and other components which warm the earth's systems, accelerating global warming. These pollutants are called SLCPs (Shortlived Climate Pollutants). Reduction of SLCPs is an important action to take for mitigating global warming. For this purpose, we have to decrease the large uncertainty involved in estimating the climate impacts of SLCPs that result from their complex characteristics and distributions. This project aims at reducing the uncertainty of SLCP impact estimates via the following activities for seeking optimum SLCP pathways and effective countermeasures for impact reduction:
- Cause and effect analysis of atmospheric quality change events and construction of an evaluation system.
- Improvement of integrated models and their application to developing future scenarios.
- Impact assessment of climate and environmental effects using numerical models.
- Development of an integrated operational system.
- Evaluation of the environmental effects and promotion of countermeasures to climate change.
http://157.82.240.167/~S12/moej-s12/index.html
S-14 「Strategic Research on Global Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change (MiLAi)」 (FY2015-FY2019)
How to improve the balance of investments in mitigation and adaptation will be assessed using various indices, including subjective wellbeing and livelihood assets, in addition to conventional economic indices, thereby supporting the development of an effective, efficient climate change policy based on environmental risk management under conditions of limited available resources. We constructed a prototype damage function for main sectors for a cost-benefit analysis, and conducted the primary estimation of adaptation using f undamental information collected for estimating damage in the main sectors. In particular, we discovered the importance of a synergistic effect among coral, seaweed beds, tidal f lats and mangrove breakwaters, and conducted an impact assessment for a cost-benefit analysis regarding the economy and health, using integrated measures of mitigation and adaptation in mega-cities. To evaluate these results, we investigated the limitations of analysis using the “Integrated Assessment Model Incorporating Global-Scale Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation” integrated with a global hydrological model, and used this knowledge to organize future work. Moreover, we are developing an evaluation method using our cost-benefit analysis method integrated with metrics such as subjective wellbeing and disability-adjusted life years based on the limitations of existing techniques in integrated strategic evaluation.
http://s-14.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
2-1702 「Integrated Analyses of Climate Policies for Simultaneous Realization of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs」 (FY2017-FY2019)
The Paris Agreement which was entered into force on 4th November 2016 states to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve these ambitious goals, the Paris Agreement requires all Parties to put forward their best efforts through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), and to strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. While achievement of the goals agreed in the Paris Agreement is a necessity for the world to maintain its sustainability, it needs to be realized in a manner that does not disturb or disable the other important societal goals, typically exemplified as the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by world leaders in September 2015 at the UN Summit. For example, stringent mitigation policies to achieve the climate goal of the Paris Agreement may increase the risk of hunger in low-income countries through the expected increase in food prices and land resource conflicts between food crops production and bioenergy crops production. For achieving the global goals on climate and food security simultaneously, in addition to the GHGs mitigation efforts like energy system transformation, supplementary measures such as international aid or regional income redistribution would be needed.
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
「Quantification of Asian sustainable development goals: Environment. energy and food related indicators」 (FY2016-FY2018)
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
「Assessment of food consumption and risk of hunger caused by extreme events」 (FY2015-FY2017)
Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows (PD)
「GHG emissions and mitigation potentials in Agriculture and Forestry」 (FY2011-FY2013)
Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows (DC1)
「Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction potential in the non-energy sector」 (FY2008-FY2010)
